Council for the Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences

The demographic outlook for Australian universities' academic staff

Professor Graeme Hugo

November 2008

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Executive summary

An analysis of the age structure of the academic staff of Australian universities demonstrates that over the next decade the universities will face their largest recruitment task for three decades. The entry of the 'baby boomers' into higher education, together with increased participation rates, resulted in a rapid expansion of universities in the 1960s and 1970s, when entrants to the academic workforce were typically in their 20s and 30s. Slower growth in academic numbers since then, and particularly in the past decade or so, has resulted in a rapidly ageing academic workforce with a 'missing generation' of younger academics - those under 40 years old, who are underrepresented in the academic workforce compared to other professions and to the workforce as a whole. The high proportion of academics who will be retiring over the next 15 years confronts the sector with a recruitment challenge.

The task of renewal will have to be addressed in the most competitive international labour market for skilled academics, scientists, technologists and researchers that has ever existed. Rather than redundancies, the policies of the next two decades will need to concentrate on three other 'R's': retention, recruitment and return. Universities will need a judicious mix of strategies, which might include 'new blood' programs, early recognition of new talent, family friendly policies (especially for women), 'bringing them back' programs to repatriate former staff and students of the university, joint international exchanges in teaching and research, incentives to keep 'high fliers' in the university, gradual retirement programs for selected staff, and accelerated promotion for key staff.

However, the development of appropriate, effective and innovative policy interventions requires a comprehensive understanding of the supply of and demand for university staff in Australia. A more detailed knowledge base is needed. This paper provides some preliminary analyses, including of disciplinary differences, but a more fine-grained analysis will be required - involving more discipline-specific and institution-specific analysis, a detailed examination of the pipeline of PhD students and postdoctoral fellows, and a comprehensive consideration of the potential for international migration to solve the workforce challenges facing Australian universities.

The 'crunch' in academic retirements has not yet arrived (it is still around a decade away), but that is no cause for complacency. A considerable lead-time will be needed to put in place the policies and strategies needed to meet the looming shortfall of staff.

 

Graeme Hugo
1 November 2008

 

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Executive Director

Council of the Humanties, Arts and Social Sciences

Phone: +61 2 6249 1995

director [at] chass.org.au